Morning Market Snapshot – November 12, 2025
We are seeing a constructive and optimistic tone in the pre-market this Wednesday. U.S. stock futures are climbing, led by a rebound in the technology sector that stumbled in yesterday’s session.
Nasdaq 100 futures were leading the way, up 0.6%. S&P 500 futures had gained 0.3%, and Dow Jones futures were 0.1% higher.
This morning’s sentiment is being driven by two powerful catalysts. The first is a significant political breakthrough. Optimism is high that the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, the longest in history, is finally nearing an end. House members are set to return to Washington to vote on a spending deal, a move that would remove a major cloud of uncertainty that has hung over the market.
The second catalyst is a renewed, and more discerning, enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence theme. After a mixed session yesterday, where the Dow hit a record high while the Nasdaq slipped, tech is back in favor. The rally is supported by strong forecasts from chip-related companies, including Advanced Micro Devices in the U.S. and Europe’s Infineon Technologies, which both projected strong sales. Adding to the bullish hardware sentiment, Nvidia supplier Foxconn posted a 17% rise in third-quarter profit, beating forecasts on strong AI server demand.
With the U.S. Treasury cash market reopened following the Veterans Day holiday, bonds are rallying, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.09%.
The main focus for the session will be the vote in Washington. An end to the shutdown means a flood of delayed economic data is coming. This data, particularly on inflation and jobs, has been unavailable for weeks, forcing investors and the Fed to fly blind.
Pre-Market News Catalysts
Here are some of the individual stocks making notable moves before the opening bell:
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Shares are up 5.9% in pre-market trading. The jump follows a company forecast for faster sales and a new projection that its data center revenue will surge 60% over the next three to five years.
- Nvidia (NVDA): The stock is rebounding, up 1.5% pre-market after dropping 2.96% in yesterday’s session. Yesterday’s weakness was linked to news that SoftBank sold its $5.8 billion stake, though reports indicate this was to fund other AI investments, not a bearish call on the sector.
- CoreWeave (CRWV): Shares are collapsing in the pre-market, down 16.3%. The plunge comes after an analyst warned that the company’s data center delays could “destroy value,” sending a shockwave through the AI infrastructure space.
- Palantir (PLTR): The data analytics firm is in focus, with shares up 0.3% pre-market. Wedbush analysts reiterated their “Buy” rating for the stock through year-end, citing “eye-popping growth” following its recent earnings report.
The Day’s Debate: The Bull vs. Bear Case
The Bull Case: Optimists believe the market is supported by a “positive cocktail” of resilient growth, dedicated AI investments, and the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts, according to analysts at Societe Generale. The primary driver is the imminent end of the 43-day government shutdown. This removes a significant drag on confidence and, historically, the resolution of past shutdowns has been a bullish signal for the S&P 500. The AI theme, while volatile, is underpinned by real capital spending, evidenced by strong forecasts from AMD and Nvidia-supplier Foxconn. Furthermore, Tuesday’s session showed a healthy rotation, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new record high, demonstrating that market strength is not confined to tech.
The Bear Case: Pessimists argue the market is showing classic signs of divergence and valuation strain. While the Dow hit a record, the Nasdaq fell on Tuesday, dragged down by a sell-off in high-growth tech stocks [4]. The AI trade is flashing warning signs. SoftBank’s $5.8 billion sale of Nvidia, even to fund other AI ventures, suggests a belief that the chipmaker’s valuation is full. This valuation concern is widespread. J.P. Morgan recently calculated that the AI buildout requires $650 billion in annual revenue just to achieve a 10% return, questioning the sustainability of the current investment craze.
This morning’s 16% pre-market collapse in CoreWeave (CRWV) on news of data center delays shows just how quickly sentiment can shatter when execution falters. Finally, the market is still operating in an information vacuum. The shutdown has deprived investors of official data on inflation and jobs, and a positive outcome is not guaranteed.
The Strategic Takeaway
Today’s session is defined by two major, and somewhat conflicting, forces: political relief and thematic rotation. The likely end of the government shutdown provides a broad bullish tailwind for all sectors. However, within the market’s leading AI theme, a great sorting is underway. Investors are no longer buying “AI” indiscriminately. They are rewarding specific, provable growth (AMD) while punishing perceived execution risk (CoreWeave) and valuation froth (Nvidia’s action yesterday).
Upcoming Session Outlook with Directional Bias
With tech futures leading, bond yields easing, and a major political overhang set to be resolved, the market has a clear runway this morning. The bias is Slightly Bullish.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The information provided is a synthesis of publicly available data and expert analysis and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to determine an investment strategy that is suitable for their own personal financial situation and risk tolerance.
