U.S. Premarket Today: Novo Nordisk Jumps After FDA Approves Weight-Loss Pill, Shipbuilders Rise on Trump Comments

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Morning Market Snapshot Tuesday, December 23, 2025

U.S. markets approach the open with a steady, holiday-thinned feel: stock index futures are hovering near flat, with S&P 500 futures up roughly 0.04%, Nasdaq 100 futures up about 0.06%, and Dow futures little changed in early New York trading. The S&P 500 is still within about half a percent of its December 11 record close, so the default question is whether the year-end bid can extend without a new macro impulse. The main scheduled catalyst is the delayed third-quarter GDP release, expected near 3.3% annualized, which will be read less for growth itself and more for what it implies about the path of rate cuts next year.

Outside the data, positioning and liquidity are doing much of the work. With the week shortened and desks lightly staffed, small headlines can travel farther than usual, and that tends to keep traders focused on levels rather than narratives. Volatility remains subdued, reinforcing a grind-higher bias but also raising the risk of sudden air pockets if a surprise hits. The dollar is softer on the margin, a tailwind for risk assets, while safe-haven demand remains evident in precious metals. Gold traded just under $4,500 per ounce, and silver also hit record territory overnight, signaling that investors are still paying for protection even as equities hold near highs.

Healthcare is the standout micro story, led by Novo Nordisk. U.S.-listed Novo shares surged about 8% premarket after the FDA approved the company’s 25 mg oral Wegovy. This semaglutide pill expands access beyond injectables and raises the competitive pressure across the obesity space. Investors treated the approval as a duration event because it could widen the treated population, strengthen Novo’s franchise, and reframe expectations for 2026 demand growth. Reuters cited late-stage data showing an average 16.6% weight loss over 64 weeks, a result that helps anchor the commercial narrative in outcomes rather than marketing. Eli Lilly shares were down about 1.1% premarket on spillover concerns about share and pricing dynamics.

Defense is also in focus after President Donald Trump highlighted shipbuilding, including talk of a new “Trump class” of battleships, which lifted Huntington Ingalls about 4.5% before the bell. The market read is straightforward: rhetoric around fleet expansion can shift expectations for naval budgets, backlog visibility, and contractor margins, even if policy details follow later. Into the open, watch whether these themes broaden participation today.

Asia was steadier than strong. Japan’s Nikkei finished little changed, while China’s CSI300 gained about 0.2%. In FX, the yen strengthened sharply on renewed intervention warnings, rising about 0.7% to around 155.88 per dollar, while the dollar eased broadly, with the euro around $1.1795 and sterling near $1.3514. That yen move matters because it tightens financial conditions for Japan’s exporters and can spill into global risk via rates and hedging flows.

Commodities are doing some of the heavy lifting for sentiment. Gold and silver pushed to fresh records on a weaker dollar and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, with gold trading just shy of $4,500 per ounce and silver also at all-time highs. Oil is comparatively calm, with Brent around $62 a barrel and WTI near $58, a pause after prior headline-driven volatility tied to Venezuela and broader supply disruption fears. The key macro focal point into the bell is the delayed Q3 GDP print, expected at roughly 3.3% annualized, plus how that data shapes rate-cut pricing for 2026.

Pre-Market News Catalysts

Novo Nordisk (NVO): U.S.-listed shares jumped about 8% after the FDA approved Novo’s 25 mg oral Wegovy (semaglutide) weight-loss pill, a key competitive step versus Eli Lilly.
Eli Lilly (LLY): Down about 1.1% premarket as investors recalibrate the obesity-drug race after Novo’s FDA win.
Huntington Ingalls (HII): Up about 4.5% premarket after President Trump floated plans for a new “Trump class” of battleships.
Clearwater Analytics (CWAN): Up about 8.1% after an $8.4B take-private deal led by Permira and Warburg Pincus.

The Day’s Debate (The Bull vs. Bear Case)

The Bull Case reads that the market is entering the open with the cleanest kind of tailwind, broad participation without obvious stress in funding or volatility. Reuters’ read-through is simple: U.S. futures are stable, Europe is at record highs, and “risk-on sentiment is dominating” as positioning tilts toward a Santa Claus rally dynamic. Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers said traders are acting as though there is “little standing in the way” of a year-end rally, which captures the prevailing psychology as liquidity thins and trend-following flows can matter more.

Macro bulls also have a plausible fundamental prop. TD Securities’ James Rossiter pointed to “upside risks” to GDP, noting that consumer demand is still “growing at a decent clip,” which matters because the market can treat solid growth as good news when inflation is not re-accelerating. The setup is helped by low realized volatility and a VIX near one-year lows, which historically supports systematic exposure staying engaged rather than de-risking.

Finally, stock-specific catalysts are reinforcing leadership rather than undermining it. Novo’s FDA approval is not just a single-name story; it is a signal that innovation-driven earnings pools are still widening. The clinical data cited, including average weight loss of 16.6% over 64 weeks in a late-stage study, gives fundamental investors something concrete to underwrite, which can keep healthcare leadership durable into year-end. Anand Iyer of Welldoc expects “a huge uptake in the patient base” as oral options arrive, aligning the micro-narrative with a large addressable market.

The Bear Case starts with the same inputs. It reaches a different conclusion: low liquidity plus low volatility can mask fragility, and the market is one headline away from a sharper reversal than positioning suggests. Ken Polcari at Slatestone Wealth described the tape as more “churn” than breakout, arguing he would not be surprised to see the market “back off” and then rally again, which is another way of saying upside is not clean and trend persistence is uncertain. In holiday conditions, that choppiness can accelerate because depth is thinner and price discovery is noisier.

Rates and FX are also flashing potential cross-currents. The yen’s sharp move is tied to intervention risk and frustration with the Bank of Japan’s signaling. Natixis’ Alicia Garcia-Herrero called the BOJ message “underwhelming,” arguing policy tightening without conviction leaves markets unsure about the path ahead. If yen strength persists, it can tighten global financial conditions marginally through hedging flows and relative rate moves, especially if it becomes disorderly.

In Europe, even on a record-high day, Reuters highlighted a live fault line: trade tensions with China. Swissquote’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya warned that renewed trade frictions “could derail” optimism around European growth, which matters for U.S. investors because Europe has been a key contributor to “global breadth” narratives. Meanwhile, gold and silver surging to records can be read as a hedge bid that conflicts with pure risk-on confidence, signaling that investors still want protection against geopolitical shocks.

The Strategic Takeaway

The cleanest way to frame this morning is to separate what is tradable from what is investable. The tradable reality is that the tape is calm, volatility is low, and the market is leaning toward a year-end drift higher, with futures marginally green and Europe printing records. That environment often rewards patience and execution discipline more than prediction, because liquidity is thin and small headlines can produce outsized moves that fade quickly.

The investable question is whether today’s catalysts change the medium-term earnings picture, or simply reshuffle positioning. Novo’s FDA decision is an example of a catalyst with real duration because it expands the addressable population for the obesity market and immediately pressures competitors. The other major “overnight” driver, Nvidia’s China-linked chip narrative, is more complex because it blends revenue opportunity with policy risk, and that can create two-way volatility around headlines. Into the opening bell, the priority is to watch how the market reacts after GDP, not the number itself. A bullish market absorbs good news without spiking yields, and it absorbs bad news without breaking support.

Upcoming Session Outlook with Directional Bias

Directional bias: Slightly Bullish.

Two signposts matter most into the open: the delayed U.S. Q3 GDP release and the market’s sensitivity to “risk-on plus hedges” behavior. Reuters notes GDP is expected around 3.3% annualized, and traders are still pricing at least two 25 bp cuts next year, with only a modest chance of a January move. If GDP surprises to the upside and yields stay contained, equities can interpret it as confirmation of a soft-landing style backdrop, especially with the S&P 500 already near records. If GDP is firm and yields jump, the market may treat it as tightening risk, and leadership could narrow quickly in thin conditions.

Outside macro, keep an eye on the “signal” assets. A strong yen on intervention talk can spill into global positioning, while record precious metals can reflect latent demand for protection even as equities grind higher. With oil relatively stable near $62 Brent and $58 WTI, energy is unlikely to be a source of volatility unless headlines return. The most probable path is a contained open with sector rotation, not a broad trend day.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The information provided is a synthesis of publicly available data and expert analysis and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to determine an investment strategy that is suitable for their own personal financial situation and risk tolerance.