Stock Futures Slip Before CPI as Fed Independence Drama Lingers, Japan Stocks Hit Records Overnight

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Morning Market Snapshot – January 13, 2026

U.S. equities ended Monday at record highs, with the S&P 500 and Dow closing at records as investors largely brushed aside headlines around a Justice Department investigation involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. That resilience mattered because it kept “risk-on” positioning intact heading into a data-heavy open, even as the policy backdrop grew noisier.

By early Tuesday morning, the mood turned more cautious. Reuters’ morning briefing flagged U.S. stock futures slipping ahead of the December CPI release, with markets still trying to price the path of rate cuts while the Powell situation raises the risk premium around the Fed’s independence. Outside the U.S., the overnight tape looked stronger. Asia led higher, driven by Japan, where the Nikkei surged to fresh all-time highs and broader regional benchmarks set records as the AI trade stayed in control and a weaker yen helped exporters.

Macro attention is sharply focused on inflation math. Reuters’ CPI preview noted economists expect December CPI up about 0.3% month over month and roughly 2.7% year over year, with core CPI also seen around 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y, after prior distortions tied to data-collection issues during a prolonged shutdown. The key point for traders is not just the headline print, but whether the “rebound” narrative hardens into a trend that delays cuts.

Cross-asset signals stayed tense overnight. Reuters reported gold pushing above $4,600/oz amid uncertainty around Fed credibility and policy stability. Oil firmed as well on geopolitical anxiety tied to Iran-related unrest and supply fears. In short, the overnight market was a tug-of-war: strong global equity momentum against a U.S. macro and institutional credibility story that can still tighten financial conditions quickly.

Pre-Market News Catalysts (Notable U.S. single-stock moves)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Shares traded higher premarket after results showed a one-time Apple Card-related charge weighed on reported profit, while adjusted performance topped expectations in some coverage.
Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD): Both moved up in premarket after KeyBanc upgraded them to Overweight, citing hyperscaler server-CPU demand and AI infrastructure tailwinds (KeyBanc cited Intel being “largely sold out” in server CPUs for 2026 in the report).
Revvity (RVTY): The stock jumped after the company said it expects 2025 adjusted profit per share to exceed its prior range and guided Q4 revenue around $772 million, with shares popping in late trading and into premarket coverage.
Arm Holdings (ARM): Shares slipped after BofA cut the stock to Neutral on concerns about a revenue slowdown, with premarket quotes showing it down more than 2% in that coverage.

The Day’s Debate (The Bull vs. Bear Case)

The Bull Case: The optimistic read starts with price action and breadth, not headlines. U.S. stocks just set fresh records on Monday, signaling that buyers are still willing to take on risk despite political noise and a crowded macro calendar. Bulls also point to the global backdrop: Asia’s overnight surge, led by Japan’s record-setting rally, reflects persistent appetite for the AI supply chain and a still-supportive liquidity mindset outside the U.S. If the U.S. CPI print lands close to expectations, the argument goes, it reduces the risk of a fresh inflation scare and keeps the “soft-landing plus gradual easing” narrative in play.

On fundamentals, the bull camp leans on the earnings season setup. Reuters’ premarket framing highlighted strategists pointing to solid growth dynamics and the idea that rate cuts already delivered are feeding into valuations and confidence. Early bank prints, starting with JPMorgan, can reinforce that the earnings floor is sturdier than feared, especially if guidance holds up.

The Bear Case: The bearish framing is simple: this is not a normal CPI morning because the market is also wrestling with institutional credibility risk. Reuters’ overnight coverage tied the Powell investigation story to investor unease about central bank independence, and that kind of uncertainty can quickly reprice risk assets, even when growth is fine. Bears also note that “higher-for-longer” can return fast if CPI shows a genuine re-acceleration. Reuters’ CPI preview stressed that prior inflation restraint was distorted by data-collection issues, and December is expected to “snap back,” which is exactly the kind of setup that can surprise to the upside.

Cross-asset markets are also sending warning signals. Gold above $4,600/oz is not a vote of confidence in policy stability; it is a hedge against it. Oil firming on Iran-linked supply fears adds another inflation-sensitive variable right before CPI, which can keep real yields and the dollar reactive. Finally, the bear camp worries about policy-driven shocks. Tariff talk and proposals like a 10% cap on credit-card interest have already jolted parts of the market in recent days, reminding traders that political headlines can land as de facto tightening of financial conditions.

The Strategic Takeaway (Most important thing into the open)

Treat today as a two-factor open: inflation math plus Fed credibility risk. CPI can move the first domino, rates. The Powell story can move the second domino, the market’s confidence in the policy reaction function. Reuters’ morning briefing makes clear that traders are already trying to reconcile rate-cut pricing with an unusual institutional headline backdrop.

Practically, that means you should watch the first 30 minutes to see whether any equity weakness, if it appears, is driven by duration (rates up, growth down) or by uncertainty hedging (gold up, defensives up, volatility bid). If CPI is merely “as expected,” the market may attempt to reassert the bullish trend that pushed U.S. indexes to records on Monday.

Upcoming Session Outlook with Directional Bias

Heading into the opening bell, the overnight message is mixed but tradable. Asia was notably strong, with Japan’s equity rally pushing regional benchmarks to records, a reminder that global risk appetite is still alive. In the U.S., however, futures were described as softer ahead of CPI, and the market is balancing optimism about earnings season against uncertainty about the Fed’s stance.

If CPI matches the “snap back” expectations described by Reuters, the open could stabilize quickly as attention shifts to the tone and guidance from bank earnings. If CPI surprises hot, the path of least resistance is a risk-off first move, amplified by the credibility premium already embedded in gold’s surge.

Directional bias for the open: Slightly Bearish, unless CPI lands cleanly and rate markets relax.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The information provided is a synthesis of publicly available data and expert analysis and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to determine an investment strategy that is suitable for their own personal financial situation and risk tolerance.