Stock Futures Slide Overnight on 15% Tariff Uncertainty, Gold Hits a Three-Week High, Bitcoin Dips Below $65K

Share the knowledge

Morning Market Snapshot – February 23, 2026

Overnight markets traded like a risk committee meeting, not a momentum chase. The dominant force was renewed uncertainty about U.S. trade policy and its knock-on effects for growth expectations, inflation pricing, and corporate planning. That uncertainty pressed on equity futures into the pre-market, while lifting classic havens.

U.S. index futures were lower across the board. S&P 500 futures were down about a third of a percent, Nasdaq 100 futures were off about half a percent, and Dow futures were modestly negative. Several live market desks framed the tone as a cautious reset rather than panic, with traders looking for clarity on the scope and durability of the administration’s latest tariff posture.

Cross-asset signals matched that read. Gold pushed to a three-week high, up more than 1% in the morning, as investors leaned into protection against policy volatility and softer risk appetite. Silver also firmed materially, reinforcing the overnight bid for hedges. At the same time, the dollar wobbled, with notable attention on USD/JPY, as currency traders weighed whether tariff uncertainty would translate into weaker growth expectations or simply into higher risk premia.

Crypto reflected the same risk-off impulse. Bitcoin slid below $65,000 overnight, then attempted to stabilize closer to the mid-$66,000 area as the morning progressed. Several crypto market write-ups attributed the drop to a mix of large-holder selling and a broader reduction in appetite for risk-sensitive assets amid tariff headlines.

Oil did not join the risk-off stampede cleanly. Crude prices eased from last week’s strong close, but the move looked constrained by geopolitics, especially attention on upcoming U.S.-Iran talks and the broader risk of disruption around Middle East supply routes. In other words, oil traded like two narratives were competing: demand anxiety from trade policy uncertainty versus supply anxiety from geopolitics.

Heading into the open, traders are prioritizing three things. First, is tariff messaging more concrete during U.S. hours? Second, are rates and the dollar consistent with the “cautious, not crisis” interpretation? Third is earnings gravity, with Nvidia later this week looming as a sentiment checkpoint for the AI trade and broader growth positioning.

Pre-Market News Catalysts

Arcellx (ACLX): Surging pre-market after Gilead agreed to acquire Arcellx in a deal valued up to $7.8B, with a $115 per share cash offer plus a contingent value component.
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ): Higher pre-market after reporting U.S. same-store sales growth of 3.7% for the quarter, beating consensus expectations around 3.47%.
Merck (MRK): Up modestly pre-market after announcing a reorganization that splits its human-health business into two units, including a dedicated oncology division anchored by Keytruda.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY): NVO fell sharply after trial results for CagriSema disappointed versus Lilly’s tirzepatide on weight loss, while Lilly gained pre-market in sympathy with the competitive read-through.

The Day’s Debate (The Bull vs. Bear Case)

The Bull Case:
The optimistic interpretation is that markets are repricing uncertainty rather than collapsing growth expectations. Bulls see a world where clarity improves quickly, volatility fades, and risk assets re-anchor on fundamentals. Under that framing, the overnight dip in futures is less about a new recession signal and more about investors demanding a higher “confidence premium” before paying up for growth.

Bulls also note that the bond market is not screaming inflation spiral this morning. Yields edged lower, which can be read as the market keeping faith that growth could soften enough to contain inflation, even if tariffs complicate the picture. If the rates market remains orderly, it often acts as a stabilizer for equities, especially for long-duration growth, which has been hypersensitive to changes in discount rates.

Single-stock action supports the case for selective risk-taking. M&A is back in the driver’s seat with the Arcellx takeout, and earnings are still moving names decisively, as Domino’s showed. That kind of tape suggests that capital has not fully gone defensive. It is rotating into an idiosyncratic opportunity with a clear catalyst and a near-term timeline.

Finally, bulls will argue that the next clean macro catalyst is not politics, it is earnings and guidance. Nvidia’s report later this week matters because it can either validate AI capex optimism or force a reset in the market’s most important growth narrative. If Nvidia delivers reassurance, it can pull broader indices higher even in a noisy policy backdrop, because the market is still structurally sensitive to mega-cap growth leadership.

The Bear Case:
The pessimistic interpretation is that uncertainty itself is the risk event. Bears see trade policy volatility as a drag on CEO confidence, capex planning, and supply chain decisions. Even without immediate economic deterioration, repeated policy pivots can tighten financial conditions by lifting volatility, widening risk premia, and strengthening the incentive to hold cash.

Haven demand overnight fits the bear script. Gold’s jump, silver’s strength, and the defensive tilt in cross-asset positioning read like protection buying, not opportunistic dip-buying. Bitcoin breaking below $65,000 overnight, even if it later stabilized, reinforces the idea that investors are trimming risk at the margin when macro headlines dominate.

Bears also focus on second-order effects. If tariff implementation is messy, the market can face recurring “headline gaps” where liquidity thins and price discovery becomes jumpy. In that environment, valuation becomes harder to defend, particularly for high-multiple growth. That is why the Nasdaq-led weakness in futures matters: it is not only about tariffs, it is about the market’s willingness to pay for duration when the policy horizon looks foggy.

In oil, bears see another complication. If geopolitics keeps an embedded risk premium in energy while trade uncertainty cools demand, the result can be an unpleasant mix: growth anxiety plus pockets of sticky inflation pressure. That combo can be challenging for both bonds and equities, because it narrows the set of “easy” policy outcomes. For bears, the path of least resistance into the open is a cautious market that sells rips until clarity improves.

The Strategic Takeaway

Treat this morning as a signal-reading exercise across markets, not a single-chart day. The equity story is uncertain, but the confirmation comes from rates, FX, and havens.

If the dollar stabilizes and yields remain contained, the overnight dip in futures is more likely to behave like a tradable risk-off pulse. In that case, investors can separate the tape into two buckets: macro-sensitive index exposure that stays choppy, and catalyst-driven single names where the story is self-contained, like M&A and earnings beats. That framework also explains why you can see both defensive positioning and aggressive stock-specific buying at the same time.

If the opposite happens, meaning the dollar weakens further while haven demand accelerates and crypto stays under pressure, the message is that uncertainty is tightening conditions in real time. In that scenario, it is usually wise to expect wider intraday ranges, faster reversals, and greater sensitivity to incremental policy headlines.

The single most important thing to keep in mind as the bell approaches is that Nvidia, later this week, is a volatility accelerant. Whether you are bullish or bearish on tariffs, the market still treats AI earnings as a macro event.

Upcoming Session Outlook with Directional Bias

The setup for the open is cautious. Futures are lower, havens are bid, and traders are prioritizing clarity over conviction. That combination often produces an early session with two phases: an initial push to reprice uncertainty at the open, followed by an attempt to find footing once liquidity deepens and the market can better weigh policy details against earnings and economic data.

Expect sharp dispersion beneath the indices. Health care is active on competitive read-throughs in obesity drugs, consumers are moving on value-driven earnings, and deal news is creating large gaps that can pull sector peers along for the ride. If the dollar and yields stay orderly, dip-buyers may test the water in mega-cap growth, especially with Nvidia approaching. If demand keeps building, traders are more likely to fade rebounds and keep risk tighter.

Directional bias for the open: Slightly Bearish.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The information provided is a synthesis of publicly available data and expert analysis and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to determine an investment strategy that is suitable for their own personal financial situation and risk tolerance.

Sources

9) SEO Keywords

stock futures today, premarket news, tariff uncertainty, gold price surge, bitcoin below 65000, oil prices Iran talks, Arcellx Gilead acquisition, Novo Nordisk trial results, Eli Lilly tirzepatide, Nvidia earnings preview

10) AI Image Prompt

A calm pre-market trading desk at dawn, soft morning light through tall windows, multiple monitors showing red futures ticks and a headline about “15% tariffs,” gold charts rising on a separate screen, a bitcoin price panel dipping below 65,000 then stabilizing, muted color palette with subtle warm highlights, realistic cinematic style, high detail, shallow depth of field, no logos, no brand marks.