Market Eyes JOLTs Data for Fed’s Next Move as September Volatility Looms

Market Intelligence Briefing

Last Updated: September 3, 2025

Market Snapshot

As the U.S. market prepares to open, a cautiously optimistic tone is being set, largely fueled by a significant legal victory for Alphabet. The tech giant’s shares are surging in pre-market trading after a federal judge ruled that it will not be forced to sell its Chrome browser. This decision is providing a tailwind for the broader technology sector, alleviating some of the regulatory overhang that has clouded big tech. U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher open, with Nasdaq futures leading the gains. This positive sentiment is further supported by the persistent expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming September meeting, with futures markets pricing in a high probability of such a move.

However, this optimism is tempered by the specter of historically volatile trading in September and the continued pressure from rising bond yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield remains elevated, which could cap upside potential for equities, particularly in growth-oriented sectors. Investors are also keenly awaiting the release of the JOLTs Job Openings data later this morning, which will provide a crucial update on the state of the labor market and heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s policy-making decisions in the near term.

Key Market Drivers

• Favorable Antitrust Ruling for Alphabet: A U.S. federal judge’s ruling that Google is not required to sell its Chrome browser has provided a significant boost to Alphabet’s stock and improved sentiment across the technology sector.
• Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The market is maintaining a strong belief that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its September meeting, which is underpinning a generally positive outlook for equities.
• Rising Bond Yields: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note continues to be a point of concern, with higher yields potentially attracting capital away from the stock market and increasing borrowing costs for companies.
• Imminent JOLTs Job Openings Data: The release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) data is a key focus for the day, as it will offer insight into the health of the labor market and could sway the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
• Corporate Earnings Reports: A number of companies are reporting earnings this morning, and their results and outlooks will provide a more granular view of corporate health and consumer spending.

Upcoming Session Outlook

Directional Bias: Neutral/Sideways

The market is likely to trade in a tight range ahead of the 10:00 AM JOLTS data. A weaker-than-expected number could fuel a bullish rally on hopes of a more dovish Fed, while a surprisingly strong report could reignite fears of inflation and push yields higher, leading to a bearish turn.

Sectors to Watch:

• Technology: This sector will be highly sensitive to movements in Treasury yields. If yields stabilize or pull back on a soft JOLTS report, expect tech to lead the market higher. Conversely, another spike in yields will likely cause underperformance.
• Financials: Banks and other financial institutions could see volatility. While higher long-term rates can benefit net interest margins, fears of an economic slowdown prompted by overly restrictive Fed policy could weigh on the sector.

Potential Volatility Catalyst:

• The release of the JOLTs Job Openings data at 10:00 AM EDT. A significantly stronger or weaker-than-expected number could introduce considerable volatility as it would directly impact the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Confidence Level: Medium

While the pre-market sentiment is positive, the upcoming JOLTs data and the underlying pressure from bond yields create a degree of uncertainty that prevents a high-confidence outlook.

Morning Market Movers

Trading Higher

• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Up over 5% in pre-market trading following a favorable ruling that the company will not be forced to sell its Chrome browser.
• Zscaler, Inc. (ZS): Gaining more than 2% pre-market after the cybersecurity firm reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issued strong guidance for the upcoming quarter. Morgan Stanley also upgraded the stock to Overweight.
• Apple Inc. (AAPL): Apple’s key revenue stream from Google’s search engine deal is now secure following a favorable court ruling. This prompted Bank of America to raise its price target on the stock to $260 and maintain its Buy rating.

Trading Lower

• Hilton Food Group plc (HFG.L): The food packaging company’s stock is trading sharply lower after issuing a profit warning, citing weaker-than-expected demand for seafood and the impact of cost inflation.¹³
• The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC): Shares are under pressure following the announcement of a plan to split the company into two separate entities, creating uncertainty among investors about the future value of the individual businesses.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic, and predictions are inherently uncertain.