Morning Market Snapshot – November 24, 2025
Wall Street appears to be finding its footing after a turbulent Friday. The dominant theme this morning is stabilization. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are trading modestly higher (up roughly 0.3% and 0.6% respectively), signaling that traders are willing to step back in and “buy the dip” after last week’s sharp AI-driven sell-off.
The catalyst for this calm is twofold. First, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged that the historic 43-day government shutdown inflicted an $11 billion permanent loss on the U.S. economy, yet he remains optimistic that 2026 will bring strong, stable growth driven by easing interest rates and new tax cuts. While conceding that interest-sensitive sectors like housing had already slipped into recession, Bessent emphasized that the broader economy is not contracting and attributed persistent 3% inflation to the services sector rather than President Trump’s tariffs. However, with factory activity slowing and voter frustration over affordability fueling recent Democratic gains, the President has intensified his focus on cost-of-living issues, even as Bessent predicts that falling energy prices will soon help ease headline inflation.
Second, the 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized around 4.06%, down from recent highs. This cooling in yields is acting as a green light for growth stocks, particularly in the tech sector, which took a beating last week. Investors are also pricing in a roughly 75% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, further emboldening the bullish camp.
However, volume is expected to thin out as we approach Thanksgiving, which can exacerbate volatility. The “Trump Trade” is evolving from a broad-based rally into a more selective stock-picker’s market. All eyes are now on whether the “Magnificent Seven” can reclaim their momentum or if the rotation into broader cyclical sectors will resume.
Pre-Market News Catalysts
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL):Up ~2.7% ($307.75)
- The News: Alphabet is leading the “Mag 7” recovery this morning. Momentum continues from last Tuesday’s unveiling of Gemini 3. The market views this latest iteration as a decisive answer to competitors, reassuring investors that Google’s AI capex is translating into tangible product leadership.
- MicroStrategy (MSTR):Up ~1.8% ($173.52)
- The News: The “Bitcoin Proxy” is ticking higher as Bitcoin stabilizes around the $86,000–$87,000 level. Despite a weekend dip, the crypto market remains resilient. MicroStrategy continues to be the primary vehicle for equity traders to gain exposure to digital assets, and its pre-market strength suggests the crypto-bulls are not capitulating yet.
- Alibaba Group (BABA):Down ~0.2% ($152.93)
- The News: Despite a flat-to-negative price action, the narrative around Alibaba is heating up. The company is deepening its AI push with the relaunch of its “Qwen” app, which has reportedly seen a surge in downloads. However, lingering concerns about the Chinese economy and potential U.S. tariff implications under the incoming administration are keeping a lid on the stock price this morning.
The Day’s Debate (The Bull vs. Bear Case)
The Bull Case: The bulls are pointing to the “Bessent Stability” and the Fed’s dovish signal as the twin pillars of a year-end rally. Sourced commentary suggests that the selection of Scott Bessent, a fund manager who understands markets, removes the “tail risk” of a chaotic Treasury department. Experts note that his comments ruling out a recession and promising a “Golden Age” in 2026 have given the market permission to look past near-term noise. Furthermore, with New York Fed President John Williams signaling that a rate cut is still on the table, the liquidity backdrop remains favorable. The argument here is that the recent pullback in Nvidia and other AI names was a healthy “valuation reset,” not a burst bubble, offering an attractive entry point for the traditional Thanksgiving rally.
The Bear Case: The bears argue that the market is ignoring the fundamental disconnect between valuations and reality. They point to the fact that despite the stabilizing indices, the “AI spending” narrative is showing cracks. Nvidia’s recent volatility (down nearly 16% from peaks) is cited as evidence that investors are losing patience with high-capex, long-payoff AI projects. Additionally, skeptics worry that the market is too complacent about the delayed economic data (some of which was postponed) and the potential for a “stagflationary” shock if inflation ticks up again. The Bear camp views the current bounce as a “dead cat bounce” in a market that is technically overextended and vulnerable to tax-loss harvesting into December.
The Strategic Takeaway
The single most important thing to keep in mind today is discipline amidst low volume. We are entering a holiday week where price moves can be exaggerated by thin liquidity. The market is attempting to pivot from “sell the news” (on AI earnings) to “buy the anticipation” (of a Fed cut and pro-business Treasury).
Do not chase the open. The gap-up in tech futures is tempting, but the savvy move is to wait for the first hour of trading to see if the bid holds. If the 10-year yield stays below 4.10%, the path of least resistance is likely higher. Focus on relative strength: stocks that hold their pre-market gains into the lunch hour are the ones institutions are accumulating before the holiday break.
Upcoming Session Outlook with Directional Bias
Bias: Slightly Bullish. The confluence of a stabilizing bond market, a “market-friendly” Treasury nominee, and oversold conditions in key tech names suggests a positive open. Expect an initial pop followed by choppy, range-bound trading as volume tapers off. The bias leans to the upside, provided Bitcoin and the 10-year yield remain calm.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The information provided is a synthesis of publicly available data and expert analysis and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to determine an investment strategy that is suitable for their own personal financial situation and risk tolerance.
8. Sources
- Investopedia
- Economic Times
- Google Finance: Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock Data
- Google Finance: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Data
- Trading Economics: US 10-Year Treasury Yield
