Morning Market Snapshot Wednesday, October 29, 2025.
U.S. equity futures are holding steady, pointing to a quiet open as markets brace for a day packed with significant catalysts. S&P 500 futures are up a modest 0.2%. This follows a powerful rally where the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed at record highs for the third consecutive session on Tuesday.
Today’s session is a two-part story. First, all attention is on the Federal Reserve. The FOMC will conclude its two-day meeting this afternoon, with an interest rate decision at 2:00 PM EDT. A 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected and considered “largely baked in” by the market.
Because the cut itself is priced in, the market’s true focal point will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. His commentary will be scrutinized with unusual intensity. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a “data blackout,” delaying crucial economic reports on the labor market and inflation. Investors will be listening for how Powell assesses the economy’s health without this “gold standard” data, and any hints about the future path of monetary policy could spark significant volatility.
Second, once the Fed’s dust settles, the market will immediately pivot to a critical earnings test. “Magnificent Seven” members Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (META) are all scheduled to report their third-quarter results after today’s closing bell. With the tech sector leading the market’s record-setting rally, these results must be strong to justify current valuations.
Pre-Market News Catalysts
Here are the key individual stocks making moves before the opening bell:
- Nvidia (NVDA): Shares jumped roughly 3% pre-market after announcing $500 billion in new AI chip orders and plans to supply systems for upcoming U.S. supercomputers. The rally pushed its implied market cap close to $5 trillion, reinforcing Nvidia’s dominance in the AI semiconductor space. Analysts noted that investor enthusiasm remains elevated, as the company continues to expand its role in both government and enterprise computing infrastructure.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Gained 1.5% pre-market as traders anticipated continued AI-related revenue momentum in Azure cloud results due later this week. Market analysts expect the company’s AI service integration to drive another quarter of double-digit growth in its Intelligent Cloud division, underscoring Microsoft’s leadership in enterprise adoption of generative AI tools.
- Amazon (AMZN): Up 1.2% ahead of Q3 earnings as analysts highlighted strength in AWS margins and U.S. consumer spending. The company’s e-commerce division has benefited from stable inflation and resilient household demand, while AWS continues to attract enterprise clients pivoting toward cost-efficient AI workloads. Investors are watching closely for updated guidance on holiday quarter performance.
- Varonis Systems (VRNS): Down 5% pre-market after disappointing guidance despite stronger-than-expected revenue. Analysts cited concerns over slowing enterprise IT spending and increasing competition in data protection software, suggesting that the stock could remain under pressure through the quarter despite recent product updates.
The Day’s Debate: The Bull vs. Bear Case
Market sentiment is perched at a critical juncture, with strong arguments from both optimistic and pessimistic camps.
The Bull Case: Optimists point to clear evidence of corporate and economic resilience. The current earnings season has been robust. So far, 85% of companies that have reported have beaten analyst EPS estimates, and nearly 70% have topped revenue estimates, the highest beat rate since the second quarter of 2021. This suggests that profitability is strong even outside the dominant AI narrative.
That said, the AI theme remains a powerful tailwind. Nvidia hit a new all-time high yesterday following a $1 billion investment in Nokia and new partnerships, reinforcing the AI-driven tech rally. Tonight’s “Magnificent Seven” earnings are projected to show 14% profit growth, nearly double the 8% expected for the broader S&P 500. This, combined with an expected Fed rate cut today, provides a solid foundation for the rally to continue.
The Bear Case: Pessimists warn that the market is priced for perfection at these all-time highs. The primary risk today is a policy error from the Federal Reserve. With the government shutdown creating a “data blackout,” Chair Powell is “flying blind” without the latest official employment and inflation statistics. Analysts caution that any perceived hawkishness in his press conference, or an unexpected focus on stubborn inflation, could spark fresh volatility in the Treasury market and unravel the equity rally. Furthermore, the bar for Big Tech earnings tonight is exceptionally high. Schwab analysis notes that these “high-flying shares could get tripped up” if earnings or, more importantly, forward guidance disappoints in any way.
The Strategic Takeaway
Today’s session is entirely a waiting game. The pre-market calm and minor moves in futures reflect a market holding its breath for two events: the 2:00 PM EDT Fed decision and the post-4:00 PM EDT Big Tech earnings. The single most important factor will not be the expected 25-basis-point rate cut, but the language Chair Powell uses to navigate the current economic “data vacuum.” Any surprise in his tone is the biggest source of potential volatility.
Upcoming Session Outlook with Directional Bias
Neutral/Sideways. The market is likely to trade in a tight, cautious range through the morning and early afternoon. Expect volume to be light leading up to 2:00 PM EDT. The true direction for the rest of the week will be set by Powell’s press conference and the market’s reaction to the Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta earnings reports after the close.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The information provided is a synthesis of publicly available data and expert analysis and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to determine an investment strategy that is suitable for their own personal financial situation and risk tolerance.
