Morning Market Snapshot – November 11, 2025
We are seeing a cautious tone across the pre-market landscape this Tuesday, with U.S. stock futures pointing to a lower open. This pause comes after a significant relief rally in the previous session, which saw the Nasdaq Composite surge 2.27% for its best day since May.
As of 3:41 AM EST, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.28%, S\&P 500 futures dipped 0.18%, and Dow Jones futures were 0.07% lower.
Yesterday’s powerful move higher was driven by two primary catalysts. First, renewed enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence sector propelled mega-cap technology stocks, with Nvidia jumping 5.8% and Alphabet climbing 4%. Second, and perhaps more structurally important, investors reacted with optimism to progress in Washington.
Late Monday, the Senate voted 60-40 to advance a bill that would fund the government through January 30, 2026. This move signals a potential end to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, a factor that has weighed on market sentiment.
Today, the market must digest those gains. The focus shifts to whether the AI-led momentum is sustainable and how quickly the government can return to normal operations. The shutdown has created a significant data vacuum. Key economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and retail sales, remain delayed. Some October data may not be released until mid-December, leaving both the Federal Reserve and investors to navigate with incomplete information.
In the absence of this top-tier data, traders will look to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, due for release today, and remarks from Fed Governor Michael Barr for any clues on the economic pulse.
Pre-Market News Catalysts
Here are some of the individual stocks making notable moves before the opening bell:
- Nvidia (NVDA): Shares are down over 1% in pre-market trading. This pullback follows Monday’s 5.8% surge and appears linked to news that Japan’s SoftBank Group is selling its entire $5.8 billion stake in the chipmaker. Reports indicate SoftBank is liquidating the position to fund expanding investments in other artificial intelligence ventures, a move that some traders are interpreting as a valuation call.
- Sea Limited (SE): The stock is rising, up 3.4% in pre-market trade. The move comes after the Singapore-based technology conglomerate issued stronger forward-looking guidance.
- BigBear.ai (BBAI): Shares surged more than 15% in after-hours and pre-market activity. The rally was ignited by the company reporting strong quarterly results and announcing the strategic acquisition of Ask Sage.
- Paramount Skydance: The media company’s stock jumped 6.6% in after-hours trading after it delivered upbeat third-quarter earnings results, beating analyst expectations.
The Day’s Debate: The Bull vs. Bear Case
The Bull Case: Optimists believe the foundation for further gains is solid, resting on policy resolution and strong fundamentals. The primary bullish argument is the imminent end of the government shutdown. The Senate’s procedural vote to advance a funding bill removes a significant cloud of uncertainty that has hampered business and investor confidence. This political breakthrough allows the market to refocus on corporate performance, which remains robust.
The third-quarter earnings season has been impressive; with 86% of S\&P 500 companies having reported, 82% have surpassed analyst estimates. On average, earnings have come in 7.3% above expectations. Furthermore, the AI theme that powered yesterday’s rally is not just hype. Companies directly involved in the “AI buildout boom” are demonstrating exceptionally strong growth rates, particularly in the technology and communications sectors. While broad market valuations are a concern, bulls point to specific, undervalued sectors. Communications, for example, is considered the most undervalued sector, with giants like Alphabet and Meta trading at an estimated 20% and 25% discount to fair value, respectively.
The Bear Case: Pessimists, however, warn that the market is running on fumes and ignoring clear warning signs. The primary concern is stretched valuations, especially in the very sectors leading the charge. The pre-market drop in Nvidia, triggered by SoftBank’s $5.8 billion stake sale, is seen as a cautionary tale. The fact that SoftBank is rotating out of Nvidia to fund other AI projects suggests a belief that the stock is fully valued and better opportunities lie elsewhere. This froth is not isolated.
Some analysts point out that valuations in the consumer defensive sector are being skewed by stocks like Costco and Walmart, which are trading at earnings multiples (over 50x and 40x, respectively) that are higher than many AI growth stocks. Beyond valuations, the economic picture is murky at best. The government shutdown has created a critical information blackout, depriving the market and the Fed of essential data on inflation and consumer spending. The data we do have is not universally positive. U.S. small-business optimism fell in October, weighed down by weaker profits and the shutdown’s impact.
Globally, German financial sentiment has unexpectedly weakened, and a rise in U.K. unemployment is stoking fears of a rate cut, a signal of economic distress.
The Strategic Takeaway
Monday’s rally was a powerful relief move, driven by a technical rebound in beaten-down AI names and, more importantly, a political breakthrough in Washington. Today, the market must prove that rally was more than just a short-lived, optimistic reaction. The core tension is clear. The key is whether the optimism from the shutdown’s potential end can override persistent valuation concerns and the deep uncertainty from the ongoing economic data blackout.
Upcoming Session Outlook with Directional Bias
Given the slight pullback in U.S. futures following yesterday’s surge and a lack of fresh economic data, the market is poised for a Neutral/Sideways open, with a Slightly Bearish bias as traders take profits in the AI sector.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The information provided is a synthesis of publicly available data and expert analysis and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to determine an investment strategy that is suitable for their own personal financial situation and risk tolerance.
