Morning Briefing: Trade War Fears Return as Best Buy and Kohl’s Defy the Gloom

Share the knowledge

Morning Market Snapshot – November 25, 2025

Wall Street this Tuesday, November 25, 2025, the “Bessent Bounce” that lifted spirits yesterday appears to be losing steam. U.S. stock futures are flashing red, with the Nasdaq 100 down 0.3% and S&P 500 futures slipping 0.2% as of 7:30 AM EST. The narrative has shifted overnight from relief over Scott Bessent’s Treasury nomination back to the gnawing anxiety of what a renewed “Trump Trade” war actually looks like for corporate bottom lines.

The morning’s spotlight is squarely on the American consumer. A deluge of retail earnings has hit the wires, painting a fractured picture of the economy. While some legacy names are surprising to the upside, others are buckling under execution errors and shifting demand. Traders are navigating a minefield of individual stock stories against a backdrop of rising bond yields, the 10-year Treasury note has crept back above 4.03%, and a dollar that is catching a bid as a safe haven.

For the active trader, today is less about riding a broad index wave and more about tactical sector selection. The “easy” post-election rally money has been made; now, the market is demanding proof of resilience. With critical inflation data (PCE) looming later this week and liquidity likely to thin out ahead of Thanksgiving, expect choppy, headline-driven price action.

Pre-Market News Catalysts

Best Buy (BBY): The electronics retailer is defying the gloom, trading up ~3.6% pre-market. The company delivered a solid earnings beat (reporting roughly $1.31 EPS vs. expectations) and managed to reassure investors about its holiday inventory positioning, proving that demand for tech upgrades hasn’t evaporated.
Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): On the flip side, DKS is stumbling, down ~5.8% in early trading. Despite raising its full-year outlook, the company missed Q3 earnings expectations ($2.07 actual vs. $2.70 estimated), a “show-me” moment that failed to impress a market with high standards for valuation.
Kohl’s (KSS): In a surprising twist, Kohl’s shares are soaring ~13%. The department store smashed earnings expectations despite a revenue dip, signaling that its aggressive cost-cutting and inventory management strategies are finally bleeding through to the bottom line.
Zoom Video (ZM): The pandemic darling is proving it has a second act. Shares are up ~4% following a beat-and-raise quarter reported late yesterday. Strong enterprise revenue growth and a $614 million free cash flow haul are convincing skeptics that its AI integration strategy is gaining traction.

The Day’s Debate (The Bull vs. Bear Case)

The Bull Case: Optimists argue that the market’s underlying engine, corporate earnings, remains robust. Sourced commentary from market strategists this morning highlights that despite the noise, companies like Zoom and Best Buy are proving they can execute in a high-rate environment.

The “Bessent Put” is also a key pillar of the bull thesis; analysts at major desks suggest that Scott Bessent’s nomination for Treasury Secretary signals a “pragmatic” approach to Trump’s economic agenda. The belief is that while tariff rhetoric will be loud, the actual policy implementation will be tempered to avoid crashing the stock market, Trump’s preferred scoreboard. Furthermore, the resilience of the consumer, evidenced by the beats from Kohl’s and Best Buy, suggests the feared recession remains a phantom, not a reality.

The Bear Case: The bears are focusing on the return of “headline risk” and valuation compression. Strategists warn that the initial relief rally overlooked the tangible inflationary impact of proposed tariffs. With the 10-year yield ticking up and gold remaining a bid, the “bond vigilantes” may be waking up to the reality of expanded deficits.

The Dick’s Sporting Goods miss is cited as a canary in the coal mine—proof that even strong brands aren’t immune to margin compression. Moreover, the Macy’s accounting scandal (delaying earnings due to hidden expenses) has injected a dose of distrust into the retail sector, giving bears ammunition to question the quality of earnings across the board. The argument is simple: valuations are too high to absorb any policy mistakes or earnings disappointments.

The Strategic Takeaway

The single most important thing to keep in mind today is bifurcation. The market is no longer moving as a monolith. We are seeing a distinct split between “execution winners” (Best Buy, Zoom) and “structural laggards” (Dick’s, Macy’s). Do not blindly buy the dip in the indices today; instead, look for relative strength in individual names that have proven they can protect margins. If you are trading the open, watch the 10-year yield closely, if it breaks meaningfully higher (above 4.05%), it could trigger a rapid rotation out of tech and into defensive staples.

Upcoming Session Outlook with Directional Bias

Outlook: Slightly Bearish / Choppy.

The combination of pre-market futures weakness, mixed retail earnings, and renewed macro anxiety suggests a heavy open. While individual stock stories will provide pockets of green, the broader index bias is likely to be sideways-to-lower as traders digest the reality of the incoming administration’s economic policies and take profits ahead of the holiday break.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The information provided is a synthesis of publicly available data and expert analysis and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to determine an investment strategy that is suitable for their own personal financial situation and risk tolerance.

Sources:

Share the knowledge